Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Why electric cars?

FastTrack Racing Challenges
and Green Volts

Producing electricity to charge a battery is the great integrating effect; there are a myriad of methods and energy sources for producing electricity. Any of them can be combined in any mix because they have a common output: DC current to charge a battery.

All bio-fuels intended for internal combustion engines (ICE’s) start with an almost insurmountable difficulty: the ICE technology developed symbiotically with the technology for refining oil. Consequently one is trying to force bio-fuels to conform to the behavior of refined crude oil (gasoline or diesel oil). Bio-fuels shoe-horned into an ICE developed for gasoline and diesel, fuels derived from crude oil, will always be at a disadvantage, they are fundamentally different compounds than gasoline and diesel fuel, and bio-fuels won’t work as well as the fuel for which the engine was designed.

A hundred years ago (1907) electric and steam cars were much preferred and outnumbered the production of gasoline powered cars. However, as roads improved and people started making longer trips the energy density of gasoline over that of batteries resulted in the first demise of the electric car. In just 30 years electric cars went from being the dominant product to non-existent.

1931 Detroit Electric

The United States and Western Europe have for a century built our entire societal structures based on the dual assumptions of individually owned vehicles run on relatively inexpensive and available gasoline or diesel fuel.
Products derived from crude oil are going to be progressively neither inexpensive nor readily available. The age of cheap oil is over.
The 2008 Detroit Car Show was a seminal event: Rick Wagoner, the chairman of General Motors acknowledged that “for some years now, the consumption of oil has outstripped supply.” Peak oil has arrived.

There are various scenarios for when “Peak Oil” arrives: the time at which we’ve extracted half of the available oil.
The Hubbert model, written in 1955 very accurately predicted the peak of oil production in the continental US (1970), predicts that world oil will peak in the 2005-2010 time frame.

The discovery of new reserves of oil, worldwide, peaked in 1960 and has declined inexorably ever since. However, explorations looking for new oil have increased every decade since 1960. Thus, the ratio of new oil discovered per exploration well drilled over the same time frame is a dramatically bleaker scenario than is shown here.

The real price (constant $) of gasoline has declined steadily from 1920 to the year 2000 (except for the Iran-Iraq war of the early 1980’s); since the year 2000 the price of gasoline has increased dramatically. At just a little over $3.00 per gallon, gasoline is now more expensive than it has ever been since the age of Model T began in 1908. This projection done in 2006 underestimated the price of gasoline in 2007 by more than 10%.

There are now two new players in the world oil drama: China and India. In 2003 China consumed one-third as much oil as the US, by 2007 it was half, at the present growth rate China will by 2012 consume as much oil as the US.
The projected price of oil based on a 30 year model (1970 to 2005) predicts an average of $90 oil by 2008, $120 by 2010 and $180 by 2015 (results in gasoline at more than $10 per gallon).

China has ten times the population of the US and they’ve just discovered that they like cars; currently less than 3% of the families in China own a car, but ownership is growing at almost 15% per year.

The demand for gasoline and diesel fuel is now growing at a rate the world has never seen before.

We cannot rebuild our cities overnight; city streets and houses on average last for more than 100 years if well maintained.
But we can change our vehicle mix; cars presently last an average about 10 years. We can start a sensible program to convert our fleet of commuter (and neighborhood errand) vehicles to smaller, more efficient, electric power.
In the US we currently average about 22 mpg for all the cars on the road (in 1925 the venerable Model T got 25 mpg); in Europe the current average is more than 35 mpg. At an average of 29 mpg the US could shut off all oil imports from OPEC countries. The most cost effective weapon we have against terrorism is to stop buying the oil that funds them.

Two technologies are now changing very rapidly; solar cells that convert sun light directly (PHV) to electricity (in terms of $/kW), and the energy density of batteries (in terms of kWhr/kg).
While utilities claim that solar power COSTS more than conventionally generated power, what matters to the consumer is the PRICE of power. Current technology solar panels installed on the roof of your home (i.e., off-grid, private, distributed power), along with a solar umbrella over your parking space at work would power a commuter car back and forth from home to work. The price would be less than half of what you’re now paying for gasoline.

A new paradigm in transportation requires marketing the concept to a new generation with a new approach: hands-on racing at the engineering model scale, so that by the time these students are adults (just 5 years) they’ll be looking for electric cars.

Thanks for taking a lap around the track with me; see you on the next pit stop.

No comments:

Post a Comment